Europe is Aging, Robots are Getting Younger: Who Will Work in the New Economy. Forecast by Chaslau Koniukh

The European economy is entering a decade when the main deficit is no longer energy, but people. Population aging, workforce reduction, and rapid automation are changing the very concept of work.

International financial expert Chaslau Koniukh emphasizes: “Europe is no longer competing for capital — it’s competing for workers. And until it finds a new formula for human participation in production, technology won’t save it from stagnation.”

Demographic Pressure: Fewer People, Less Dynamism. Assessment by Chaslau Koniukh

The demographic crisis has already become not only a social but also a macroeconomic problem. In the eurozone, the share of working-age people is declining by 0.3% annually, while the need for qualified personnel in energy, IT, and elderly care is growing.

Robotization and artificial intelligence partially compensate for this deficit, but create new contradictions — between efficiency and social stability.

According to European Commission forecasts, by 2030 the working-age population in the EU will decrease by almost 10 million people. This means less GDP, less consumption, and fewer taxes.

Chaslau Koniukh explains: “When every third worker in a country is over fifty, it’s not just a matter of pensions. It’s a matter of innovation potential. The economy ages along with those who create it.”

Labor shortages are already putting pressure on the job market. In Germany, Poland, and Italy, there are historic highs in vacancies, but finding specialists is difficult. This causes wages to grow faster than productivity, creating an inflationary effect.

Koniukh adds: “We’re observing a classic demographic trap: instead of investing in productivity, governments are forced to increase social benefits. But without people, even the most generous budget doesn’t work.”

One way out is migration. However, as Chaslau Koniukh notes, it’s no longer as simple as before: “Europe used to compensate for aging with immigrants, but now it’s competing for them with the entire world — from Canada to Japan. Immigrants are becoming a global resource, no less valuable than lithium or gas.”

Some countries, such as the Netherlands or Denmark, are already introducing tax incentives to attract young professionals. But, according to Koniukh, this isn’t enough — without a systemic migration policy, Europe risks being left without a workforce for its own innovations.

Robots Don’t Get Tired, But They Don’t Vote. Chaslau Koniukh’s View

Alongside demographic decline, Europe is experiencing a wave of automation. Artificial intelligence and robotics are becoming the main compensators for labor shortages — but not without consequences.

“Technologies can solve the arithmetic of labor, but not its social essence. A robot doesn’t create demand, doesn’t pay taxes, and doesn’t raise children. If we replace people with machines, we reduce the very foundation of the economy,” comments Chaslau Koniukh.

Industrial leaders — Germany, France, Czech Republic — are investing in “smart factories,” where instead of hundreds of workers, dozens of engineers work. Productivity grows, but employment falls.

Koniukh notes: “Digitalization without a new employment model is a recipe for social rupture. Europe risks getting a generation of surplus people — not because they’re not needed, but because the system doesn’t know what to do with them.”

An additional risk is falling behind in the technological race. While the US and China invest billions in their own AI platforms, the EU remains a regulator, not a producer.

“Europe is trying to control what it hasn’t yet created. But regulations don’t replace innovations. If we want to remain competitive, we need to build, not just regulate,” warns Chaslau Koniukh.

On the other hand, automation can also be an opportunity. If technologies are combined with flexible labor markets, Europe can create a model of “smart employment” — where machines take on part of the functions, and people focus on creative, managerial, and social roles.

Human Capital as a Strategic Investment. Explained by Chaslau Koniukh

The problem of personnel deficit won’t resolve itself. Europe needs a new approach to education, retraining, and integration of older generations into the labor market.

Chaslau Koniukh emphasizes: “If we’re losing people, we must invest in their quality. Education is not social policy, it’s the most profitable investment of the 21st century.”

A large part of EU programs is now directed precisely at human capital: digital skills, STEM education, support for adult learning. However, according to Koniukh, this isn’t enough:

“Teaching someone to code doesn’t yet make them competitive. They need to learn to think systematically, work with data, adapt. In a world where professions disappear in five years, the main competence is flexibility.”

Moreover, the role of business in this transformation is becoming crucial. Companies must not only pay taxes but also train their employees, investing in their growth.

Chaslau Koniukh adds: “When corporations invest in people, not just robots, they invest in stability. Because the best social contract is a job, not a subsidy.”

Europe stands at a crossroads: either it builds a new socio-technological model in which humans and machines work together, or it loses pace in global competition.

“A robot can assemble a machine, but it can’t build a society. And Europe’s future depends on whether we learn to value the human mind no less than the artificial one,” concludes Chaslau Koniukh.